도시관리연구실

논문 초록 (Abstract)

This paper utilizes urban growth models to examine future patterns in urban land uses and travel behaviour that may occur during the transition of South Korea's Siheung city into a post-ubiquitou s city. In particular, this study adopts the cellular automata and gra vity models in order to produce simulated spatial-temporal structur es of urban land uses and provide estimates in trip frequencies over time by vehicular travel. Through the application of such models, seve ral findings relevant to the land use planning and urban infrastru cture management of Siheung city's transitional phase can be demonst rated. First, predicted changes in urban form are typified through gr adual spatial-temporal shifts which, in turn, culminate to produce decentralization and an alternative concentration in polycen tric urban land uses. Such findings have a basis in transitional rules which reflect the emphasis of the nation-wide policy of ubiquitou s cities on developing a polycentric digital network with higher densit y living. Additionally, changes in travel behaviour can be shown thro ugh estimated increases in short-distance travels and associate d decreases in long-distance travels decrease. Accordingly, it is estim ated that over time the total travel distance decreased by a range of 18.4 to 21.8 %, with a possible reduction of carbon emission.