Future City Lab.

논문 초록 (Abstract)

This paper utilizes urban growth models to examine future patterns in urban land uses and travel behaviour that may occur during the transition of South Korea’s Siheung city into a post-ubiquitous city. In particular, this study adopts the cellular automata and gravity models in order to produce simulated spatial–temporal structures of urban land uses and provide estimates in trip frequencies over time by vehicular travel. Through the application of such models, several findings relevant to the land use planning and urban infrastructure management of Siheung city’s transitional phase can be demonstrated. First, predicted changes in urban form are typified through gradual spatial–temporal shifts which, in turn, culminate to produce decentralization and an alternative concentration in polycentric urban land uses. Such findings have a basis in transitional rules which reflect the emphasis of the nation-wide policy of ubiquitous cities on developing a polycentric digital network with higher density living. Additionally, changes in travel behaviour can be shown through estimated increases in short-distance travels and associated decreases in long-distance travels decrease. Accordingly, it is estimated that over time the total travel distance decreased by a range of 18.4 to 21.8 %, with a possible reduction of carbon emission